Courtesy of friend of the program and horse racing savant Josh Fisher.
The second leg of the triple crown is the shortest race, which is why I like Always Dreaming to likely win the race. The Kentucky Derby winner is the favorite and for very good reason. He has a great post position breaking from the four spot. He likes to set the pace and will be hard to catch from the start.
A lot of people like Classic Empire and they should. I like the Arkansas Derby winner too. He beat out Conquest Mo Money and Lookin' at Lee to win that pre-derby race - more on those ponies shortly. He finished a disappointing fourth at the Kentucky Derby, but really battled numerous difficulties to get there. You gotta like a horse with that spirit. He is listed at 3-1 and breaking eye-to-eye with Always Dreaming in the five spot. He will likely challenge for the win.
Always Dreaming is coming off at 4/5 and Classic Empire at 3-1. No fun to just play the favorites and there is potential for money to be made on Saturday. Which is why a superfecta play is the way I like to go. It's more bang for your buck on .50 cent and $1 plays. Make sure you box them. With that said, these two horses will be a part of any super I play. They will be in the top two of the 10-horse field, or top four.
I have three likely candidates and two sleepers for Saturday's race.
The three I am going to play in some sort of combination with the two above.
Gunnevera - A late closer, was rough at the Derby with a 7th, but has a lot of races under his belt and is a horse I expect to be in the mix. At 16/1, could be a bargain play.
Lookin at Lee - Finished second at the Kentucky Derby and is 10-1. He is a closer and had a great ride in Louisville with some luck as Thunder Snow pulled up seconds into the Kentucky Derby. That opened the race up for Lookin at Lee, preventing him from getting pinched in the massive field out of the gate. This horse has been in the money for the bulk of the races over his career.
Conquest Mo Money (18-1) - It's typical to jump on horses that skipped the Derby to think there is a "chance" they win. Sure, there is always a chance, but history has proven not likely. This is not a horse I see winning, but a horse that has proven to run well with other horses on this list. Which is why i like playing him to finish in a superfecta.
Gonna throw two sleepers out there cause some folks just like these horses. Hence (20-1) placed poorly at the Derby, but had a great pre-derby race at Sunland. From my perspective, he was a complete disappointment in Louisville and I am not buying this time around, anyone else is welcome to try. Also, Cloud Computing (20-1) is a new entry after missing the derby. Going off at 14-1, I am not overly sold on a horse that has not raced against great competition. Also, his speed Beyer ratings were not overly impressive.
Good luck with the Preakness.
Fish