Photo: Rich Storry / Getty Images Sport / Getty Images
The Minnesota Timberwolves are 6.5-point underdogs in Game 1 of the first round of the NBA Playoffs against the Denver Nuggets at Ball Arena on Saturday, tipping off at 3:30 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video.
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Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Predictions for Saturday
Our computer projections model for this matchup predicts a final score of Nuggets 121, Timberwolves 115.
- Moneyline Pick: Nuggets (-287)
- Total Pick: Over 232.5 (computer predicts 235.8 points)
- Pick ATS: Timberwolves (+6.5)
Recent Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Matchups
| Date | Favorite | Spread | Total | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/1/2026 | Nuggets | -2.5 | 241.5 | -146 | +123 | 117-108 MIN |
| 12/25/2025 | Nuggets | -1.5 | 238.5 | -116 | -103 | 142-138 DEN |
| 11/15/2025 | Nuggets | -1.5 | 237 | -114 | -105 | 123-112 DEN |
| 10/27/2025 | Nuggets | -6.5 | 229.5 | -240 | +197 | 127-114 DEN |
| 4/1/2025 | Nuggets | -2 | 229.5 | -123 | +103 | 140-139 MIN |
| 3/12/2025 | Nuggets | -1.5 | 233.5 | -125 | +105 | 115-95 MIN |
| 1/25/2025 | Nuggets | -3.5 | 229.5 | -163 | +138 | 133-104 MIN |
| 11/1/2024 | Timberwolves | -4 | 219.5 | -176 | +149 | 119-116 MIN |
Nuggets 2025-26 Betting Trends
- Denver has a 44-38-0 record against the spread this season.
- In games they have played as at least 6.5-point favorites this season, the Nuggets are 18-20 against the spread.
- Denver's games have hit the over in 51 out of 82 opportunities (62.2%).
- This season, the Nuggets have been favored 58 times and won 42, or 72.4%, of those games.
- This season, Denver has won 25 of its 30 games, or 83.3%, when favored by at least -287 on the moneyline.
Timberwolves 2025-26 Betting Trends
- Minnesota's ATS record is 38-44-0 this year.
- The Timberwolves have a 4-3 record against the spread this season when an underdog by 6.5 points or more.
- In Minnesota's 82 games with a set total, 38 have hit the over (46.3%).
- The Timberwolves have gone 8-15 in games they were listed as the moneyline underdog (winning 34.8% of those games).
- When it has played as a moneyline underdog with odds of +231 or longer, Minnesota has a record of 2-3 (40%).
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Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Injury Report
Nuggets
Nuggets:
Peyton Watson: Out (Hamstring),
Spencer Jones: Questionable (Hamstring)
Timberwolves
Timberwolves:
Anthony Edwards: Out (Knee)
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Game Time and TV Channel
- Game day: Saturday, April 18, 2026
- Game time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- TV channel: Amazon Prime Video
- Location: Denver, Colorado
- Arena: Ball Arena
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