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The Denver Nuggets are double-digit 11.5-point favorites for a decisive Game 5 of the opening round of the NBA Playoffs against the Minnesota Timberwolves at Ball Arena on Monday, starting at 10:30 p.m. ET on NBC/Peacock. The Timberwolves lead the series 3-1.
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Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Predictions for Monday
Our computer projections model for this matchup predicts a final tally of Nuggets 120, Timberwolves 115.
- Moneyline Pick: Nuggets (-529)
- Total Pick: Over 224.5 (computer predicts 235.0 points)
- Pick ATS: Timberwolves (+11.5)
Recent Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Matchups
| Date | Favorite | Spread | Total | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/25/2026 | Nuggets | -1.5 | 228.5 | -118 | -101 | 112-96 MIN |
| 4/23/2026 | Timberwolves | -1 | 232.5 | -117 | -102 | 113-96 MIN |
| 4/20/2026 | Nuggets | -7.5 | 232.5 | -293 | +236 | 119-114 MIN |
| 4/18/2026 | Nuggets | -6.5 | 232.5 | -282 | +228 | 116-105 DEN |
| 3/1/2026 | Nuggets | -2.5 | 241.5 | -146 | +123 | 117-108 MIN |
| 12/25/2025 | Nuggets | -1.5 | 238.5 | -116 | -103 | 142-138 DEN |
| 11/15/2025 | Nuggets | -1.5 | 237 | -114 | -105 | 123-112 DEN |
| 10/27/2025 | Nuggets | -6.5 | 229.5 | -240 | +197 | 127-114 DEN |
| 4/1/2025 | Nuggets | -2 | 229.5 | -123 | +103 | 140-139 MIN |
| 3/12/2025 | Nuggets | -1.5 | 233.5 | -125 | +105 | 115-95 MIN |
| 1/25/2025 | Nuggets | -3.5 | 229.5 | -163 | +138 | 133-104 MIN |
| 11/1/2024 | Timberwolves | -4 | 219.5 | -176 | +149 | 119-116 MIN |
Nuggets 2025-26 Betting Trends
- So far this season, Denver has put together a 44-38-0 record against the spread.
- The Nuggets have a 5-9 record against the spread when favored by 11.5 points or more this season.
- A total of 51 of Denver's 82 games with a set total have hit the over (62.2%).
- This season, the Nuggets have been favored 58 times and won 42, or 72.4%, of those games.
- Denver has a record of 13-4, a 76.5% win rate, when it's favored by -529 or more by oddsmakers this season.
Timberwolves 2025-26 Betting Trends
- Minnesota has gone 38-44-0 ATS this season.
- In Minnesota's 82 games with a set total, 38 have hit the over (46.3%).
- The Timberwolves have won 34.8% of the games this season they were the moneyline underdog (8-15).
- Minnesota has not yet played as a moneyline underdog of +393 or longer.
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Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Injury Report
Nuggets
Nuggets:
Aaron Gordon: Questionable (Calf),
Peyton Watson: Out (Hamstring)
Timberwolves
Timberwolves:
Donte DiVincenzo: Out For Season (Leg),
Anthony Edwards: Out (Knee)
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Game Time and TV Channel
- Game day: Monday, April 27, 2026
- Game time: 10:30 p.m. ET
- TV channel: NBC/Peacock
- Location: Denver, Colorado
- Arena: Ball Arena
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